Monday, December 31, 2007
Mike Huckabee. Dead, wrapped in plastic.
Who let this pic get taken? The same people who put Kerry in the NASA bunny suit?
Bad Day At Little Rock.
Huckabee he says won't go negative, then screens Romney hit ad
In perhaps the single most brazen display of hypocrisy in politics in a long while, Republican Mike Huckabee held a press conference to say he's above negative campaigning and then immediately went negative. He said he would not screen an attack ad against Mitt Romney, then screened said ad for a room full of cameras and passed out copies of the ad. With supporting documentation.
Insane. Who on earth would be fooled by this?
Insane. Who on earth would be fooled by this?
Fred Thompson makes last minute pitch to Iowa
Fred makes a lengthy 17 minute pitch to the people of Iowa.
Not as slick as you'd imagine from Mr. Hollywood. Stumbles a bit with the teleprompter. Very static image and background, with weird distracting website over his head (though presidential oval is a smart motif). Poorly edited. Lacking smooth phraseology. Talking in the background from around 10:00 mark.
Not the most professional of videos, but he makes a solid play for the tag of "true conservative". He doesn't lay out a lot of specifics, but then who does these days? He does very clearly lay out the principles of the conservative base, and places himself squarely in that role.
Fred does bring in the Reagan name, but this is not a Reaganesque video. I've long thought Reagan just made it look easy, and that his Great Communicator status was the result of a lifetime of training specifically for it. This sort of speaking isn't the same as acting, as related as the skills may seem. There's a smoothness lacking here, a comfort with the words and phrases and manner of speaking that just isn't here.
I think he also suffers from not having a team of professionals working on these. He needs the top speech writer, the top producer, the top editor, etc. He suffers from their absence. While I appreciate the dream of a simple campaign, such an approach just doesn't work in the end. Now, a team so slick as to look simple, that's the ideal dream. But you just can't cut corners at this level, it looks amateurish and will cost votes. Maybe not ideal, but it's the way things are.
The video could be shorter and more impactful, but his play is clear- he wants the conservative vote. If he plays he right, maybe he ends up as a Veep counterpoint to the slicker winner. Could be that's the plan. That might work, but as a play for the ticket headliner, this video falls short.
Not as slick as you'd imagine from Mr. Hollywood. Stumbles a bit with the teleprompter. Very static image and background, with weird distracting website over his head (though presidential oval is a smart motif). Poorly edited. Lacking smooth phraseology. Talking in the background from around 10:00 mark.
Not the most professional of videos, but he makes a solid play for the tag of "true conservative". He doesn't lay out a lot of specifics, but then who does these days? He does very clearly lay out the principles of the conservative base, and places himself squarely in that role.
Fred does bring in the Reagan name, but this is not a Reaganesque video. I've long thought Reagan just made it look easy, and that his Great Communicator status was the result of a lifetime of training specifically for it. This sort of speaking isn't the same as acting, as related as the skills may seem. There's a smoothness lacking here, a comfort with the words and phrases and manner of speaking that just isn't here.
I think he also suffers from not having a team of professionals working on these. He needs the top speech writer, the top producer, the top editor, etc. He suffers from their absence. While I appreciate the dream of a simple campaign, such an approach just doesn't work in the end. Now, a team so slick as to look simple, that's the ideal dream. But you just can't cut corners at this level, it looks amateurish and will cost votes. Maybe not ideal, but it's the way things are.
The video could be shorter and more impactful, but his play is clear- he wants the conservative vote. If he plays he right, maybe he ends up as a Veep counterpoint to the slicker winner. Could be that's the plan. That might work, but as a play for the ticket headliner, this video falls short.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Ron Paul Blimp sighting!
Romney and Edwards in Iowa, explaining the call
Last week I posted that Romney and Edwards would win Iowa, but without an explanation.
On the Dem side, it was a result of some basic analysis. Edwards is polling well as the first choice of Iowans, and far and away the favorite second choice. The second choice is particularly important in the Caucuses, since after the first round, people who supported candidates with less than 15% in the first round go to their second choice. The Dem field is fragmented enough that there will be a substantial number of people going to their second choice, and the lion's share of those will go to Edwards. It should be enough for him to pull out a win.
I don't think a win in Iowa helps Edwards much, but it's a complete disaster for the Clinton campaign. Edwards isn't going to be the nominee. He won't even win his home state. But he can shatter the aura for Hillary with a win. He's also the most likely to end up as a Veep again, and Iowa helps him make that case when the time comes.
On the Pubbie side, the call is more instinct than anything else. Huckabee is enjoying a last minute surge, but it just doesn't feel real. You often see this sort of thing in a campaign, support of a candidate suddenly increasing as the time to vote approaches, but it's often illusory. I don't really understand why it happens ( I think the press's need for drama is part of it), but I've seen it enough to know what it feels like. This feels like it. I predict his support will collapse in the coming week, to the point that he simply won't be in first place when it's all said and done. At that point, his campaign is over, he doesn't have a second act.
That leaves Romney in the catbird seat, and I see him taking the Iowa win and riding it all the way to the convention. His will be a story of increasing momentum. The other potentials, McCain and Giuliani, were never more than flirtations for the voters. They knew what they were getting with those two and never really got excited about either of them. Both are too tainted in various ways to have serious chance at winning. Thompson came in too late, and with less understanding of Reagan's power than he imagined. Paul. Well, Paul had the blimp at least.
We're getting close to the fun time!
On the Dem side, it was a result of some basic analysis. Edwards is polling well as the first choice of Iowans, and far and away the favorite second choice. The second choice is particularly important in the Caucuses, since after the first round, people who supported candidates with less than 15% in the first round go to their second choice. The Dem field is fragmented enough that there will be a substantial number of people going to their second choice, and the lion's share of those will go to Edwards. It should be enough for him to pull out a win.
I don't think a win in Iowa helps Edwards much, but it's a complete disaster for the Clinton campaign. Edwards isn't going to be the nominee. He won't even win his home state. But he can shatter the aura for Hillary with a win. He's also the most likely to end up as a Veep again, and Iowa helps him make that case when the time comes.
On the Pubbie side, the call is more instinct than anything else. Huckabee is enjoying a last minute surge, but it just doesn't feel real. You often see this sort of thing in a campaign, support of a candidate suddenly increasing as the time to vote approaches, but it's often illusory. I don't really understand why it happens ( I think the press's need for drama is part of it), but I've seen it enough to know what it feels like. This feels like it. I predict his support will collapse in the coming week, to the point that he simply won't be in first place when it's all said and done. At that point, his campaign is over, he doesn't have a second act.
That leaves Romney in the catbird seat, and I see him taking the Iowa win and riding it all the way to the convention. His will be a story of increasing momentum. The other potentials, McCain and Giuliani, were never more than flirtations for the voters. They knew what they were getting with those two and never really got excited about either of them. Both are too tainted in various ways to have serious chance at winning. Thompson came in too late, and with less understanding of Reagan's power than he imagined. Paul. Well, Paul had the blimp at least.
We're getting close to the fun time!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
John Edwards and his Two Americas
Thursday, December 20, 2007
EJ is calling Iowa- Edwards and Romney
You heard it here first.
Reasoning and hunches to follow, just going on record.
Reasoning and hunches to follow, just going on record.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Caucusing is easy!
It could benefit from some better editing (Rod's Law- "There is no short film which would not be better if it were shorter."), but the idea is solid.
Start out with some bland misdirection to avoid turning off those viewers which have seen too many political ads. Then seduce with humor and celebrity. Then go to a voter who is "one of us" for your target market. Continue with disarming normalcy while implanting the idea of the excitement of supporting the winning candidate (yours, of course), and close with more humor, celebrity, and just-us-folksism.
Not bad.
