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Saturday, January 26, 2008

 

Obama- Making The Very Most of South Carolina Win

In a stunningly impressive speech for a late-early stage primary victory, Barack Obama played his strongest card- his oratorical talent and vision. Watching this, you see how he could win, and even think for a time he might mean what he says.

How odd for a politician.

If anyone can lead a new movement in national politics, it might be this man.

Whatever the case, the speech is a joy to watch.


Wednesday, January 23, 2008

 

Bill Clinton vs. Obama In South Carolina Primary- The Most Cynical Game?

Dick Morris wrote a very interesting piece on a possible Clinton strategy in South Carolina- Send Bill out to campaign with the Black community, knowing full well that he and Hillary will lose the state due largely to Black voters backing Obama.

At that point, what they will have done is draw attention to race in a way that Obama himself has studiously avoided, and to great advantage. The theory goes that White voters, seeing Black voters vote as a bloc, will then break towards Hillary on Super-Duper Tuesday.

It's about the most cynical us-v-them maneuver possible, and is really depressing to watch.

Is it really the plan? Well, all the evidence sure does seem to play that way. And, of course, it fits the Machination Machine profile. And Morris used to mastermind just this sort of thing, for just this pair of candidates.

On the flip side, Morris says a lot of things, for a lot of reasons.

Still...

Saturday, January 19, 2008

 

Obama- He's started the general election already

So maybe Obama really means it about the whole "uniter not a divider" thing. Or he at least knows how to play the game and make his opponent look bad at the same time.

From National Review Online:

"Team Hillary will be holding a conference call with Rep. Barney Frank (MA), Rep. Corrine Brown (FL), and Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV) to "discuss recent comments from Sen. Obama claiming that the Republican party was the party of ideas.""

So Obama is saying nice things, in a very minor way, about the opposing party and one of their favorite icons, Ronald Reagan, and Hillary is attacking him for it.

Understandable reaction from Clinton in traditional world of politics, but brilliant chess-like maneuvering on the part of Obama.

He's the Uniter, she's the Divider, and she's falling for it.

Doesn't cost him a thing, either.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

 

Obama- Young Voters Energize Elections

Well, it had to happen. After so many great videos, the Obama campaign makes this:



Not quite jumping the shark, but it does look like something a church youth program would make in an attempt to look hip.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

 

Democratic Debate Impressions- Obama, Clinton, Edwards

In contrast, the Democratic debate was filled with the excitement of a shifting political landscape.

Obama didn't have his best night. He actually seemed a bit lackluster compared to his public speaking of late. Perhaps he's a bit worn down. Perhaps he knows he didn't need top performance tonight. Perhaps he had a plan. He didn't hurt himself, and was able to make some minor progress on the "no specifics" charges. Overall, solidifying status as frontrunner.

Clinton, on the other hand, most definitely did some serious damage to herself. Facing pressure of a third place finish in Iowa, and slipping numbers in New Hampshire, she let it get to her. Her friendly, happy, let's-chat facade cracked, for just a moment, but it's a moment that reminded everyone, even her supporters, what they don't like about her. Arrogance and anger poured out of her for about a minute, and it was not at all flattering for her demeanor. The rest of the debate was ok (though honestly, the "35 years of change" line is ill-advised on about a half dozen different levels), but no one will remember that. She really suffered some damage.

And I think a lot of it came from her surprise at Edwards. There was a point fairly early on where Hillary was attacking Obama, and ended it with a clear invitation for Edwards to pile on Obama as well. Obama didn't miss the attempt, and was clearly prepared for it as he jumped in and broke up the presumptive tag-team with a mini-oration of his own. Smart tactics, break the momentum, at least make them work for it if they're attacking you.

But Edwards had a surprise for them both. Ever the trial lawyer tactician, he seemed to blindside both Clinton and Obama by siding with Obama. At that crucial moment, the dynamic changed in a way no one on the stage was expecting. Obama wisely took a back seat and watched Edwards make his play. Clinton never recovered, she was on the defensive from that point on, and Edwards was eventually able to push her into the mistake she made with her tone. The look on his face when she took the bait was priceless. He knew exactly what he was doing, and executed it quite well.

Combined with the dynamism of his "this time it's personal" approach to the Change question, Edwards was the winner tonight. Second place in New Hampshire is in his reach. I'm not sure what his long term plan is, if he's aiming for Veep again, or if he's got a plan for Obama once he knocks off Hillary, but he took some strong steps to making it a two man race tonight.

Overall, this was a defining moment in the Democratic race. Hillary took a major slide down, and Edwards seems to be sealing in the number two space.

 

Republican Debate Impressions- McCain, Huckabee, Romney

Republican New Hampshire ABC debate- The roundtable format was nicely done, and fostered a lot of interesting interaction. It also has the semi-subliminal side effect of showing who can take charge of a conversation and how they do it.

McCain did ok. New Hampshire is his to lose, and the didn't seem to lose a lot of ground in this debate. He didn't gain any, but he didn't really need to. He did, as he always has, tend to go a half-step too far in his barbs and comments. That always creates the paradoxical impression that he's both forcing the barb and at the same time holding back from being a whole lot nastier. People are used to that from him by now though, so no real harm.

Huckabee seemed the best prepped by far. He was playing a good tactical game, attacking when he should, sitting back when it was best to let others hang themselves. He also had the best phraseology, again clearly rehearsed and planned, but to his benefit. I don't know that he gained a lot of ground, but probably did make a little progress. Needed to really shine, just came across as competent.

Romney needed the biggest win, and honestly came up a bit short. His reaction to the attacks was probably too restrained. There were a couple of points when you could see the anger flash across his face, but he quickly buried it. That's too much of the corporate diplomat coming through. More than anything, it's this sort of thing that causes people to label him as fake and phony. It's not, not really, but people associate the behavior with fake executives, and he loses credibility by association. He needs to let that go a bit more, get riled now and again. On the plus side, he does really well when he can slide into wonk mode. Voters tune that out, for the most part, but he certainly creates the impression that he loves the details of policy. An admirable trait, but it won't win fans, sadly.

Overall, this debate leaves the status quo intact. Nothing new here.

Friday, January 04, 2008

 

Iowa: Obama is for real, is Huckabee...?

First of all- no question about it, Obama's victory is a historic moment, and one worth celebrating. Regardless of his policies, his win symbolizes the very tail end of an era. Congratulations to him on that, and congratulations to Iowa as well.

Where does he go from here? Well, as his recent ads have been indicating, this is exactly the narrative he's ready to tell. There's a movement, something is happening, don't get left out. It's a perfect plan for New Hampshire, and he might just pull off a win there as well. If he does, he's got it made. Second place seems relatively assured, and that's probably good enough too, but a win there locks it in.

Whither Huckabee? He won't win NH, he probably won't even show well. It currently seems unlikely he'll be the nominee. But that scenario can't be ruled out. For him, Iowa was just the first step in a battle that won't end til at least the end of this month. The Republican nomination is completely up for grabs, with at least 3 viable winners, possibly 4 if Rudy's Florida Gambit pays off.

The Democratic nomination could solidify very quickly in Obama's favor, in a matter of days. The Republican nomination has some long, hard-fought weeks ahead of it.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

 

Barack Obama: "If You Believe..."

Obama's team has been posting a number of videos from the campaign trail to their YouTube account. They post fast, usually within 12 hours, and the videos are nicely edited and tightly focused.

It's in the cinema verite style of his better tv ads, shots from (and of) the crowds, complete with the documentary handheld camera and focus pulling aesthetic. The editor is particularly adept at finding shots of people looking up at the candidate with a thoughtful look on their face.

In general, the whole thing works. It plays like it's intended, as capturing a historic movement in progress. That's one advantage of the using the lexicon of historic documentary filmmaking, it sells the idea that history is happening before your eyes. It's an interesting "time capsule of the now" feel, to pin a phrase on it. Events are being recorded this way because they matter. Join now, don't miss your chance at being a part of it!

Nice work, and kudos to Obama and his team for finding a style and message that plays off his strengths and not the other way around.

Video of Obama giving the same speech in 3 locations on 1 day. Good idea, and smart to do it with a piece that gains a lot of its power from the repetition of a phrase- "If you believe..." (which, of course, also sells the idea that you have a role to play in this).

Really, Obama's people are turning out the best work out there.


 

Mitt Romney- trio of slick corporate ads

Mitt Romney's team is producing some slick ads as the clock ticks down in Iowa. Here's three shot in the same location in the same setting.

"Asian Tiger"


An ad on the challenge of an upcoming Chinese superpower.

Then, "Everywhere"


An ad on the challenge of Big Issues.

And finally, "Vote For Tomorrow"


A positive, upbeat, the future's-so-bright ad.

The ads are all well made. High production value. Well written. On message and mutually reinforcing. Ready for the challenges, rolling up the sleeves and leading by example. It's a smart message. It's the essence of the American spirit. Romney himself really nails the tone, and his eye interaction with the camera is top-shelf material.

But...

These all look like corporate videos. Watching them, I've got no doubt I'd vote for the guy for CEO. Or as a friend put it, "If my Olympics are in trouble, this is guy I'm calling."

But we're not electing a CEO, and I don't have an Olympics in trouble.

Romney's bringing his A-Game, the question now is if it's the right game to be playing.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

 

Barack Obama: "One Voice" for change

This "One Voice" ad is nicely done. The audio really works well for it, getting that "you are there" excitement with the slightly distorted PA sound. The music has that low-key dramatic change beat to it. It feels like it's a snippet of something more, with a future growth implied in the tempo and melody

The visuals are impressive too. Lots of motion, people coming together, an auditorium filling up. A real sense that there's a movement building, and it's building right here in Iowa (so to speak). Come on now, be a part of it!

Really one of the best and most on-message ads I've seen in the campaign. You couldn't spend your 30 seconds of air time better as a candidate at this stage.


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