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Wednesday, February 13, 2008

 

The Rabbit v. Mouse years

Go ahead, try to tell me this doesn't remind you of the campaign this year.


Tuesday, February 05, 2008

 

Rocky Mountain High

So one scenario under which the Dems might lose in November-

A brokered convention.

It's shaping up that way now. Today will likely be a split decision
on the Dem side, with no clear winner. It's also likely that all the
remaining primaries will finish up with Obama with a slight lead in
delegates, but not enough for the nomination.

So then it's on the Superdelegates, or delegates who are unbound and
free to vote for whoever they wish. Typically these are party
officials, elected officials, etc. It's usually a ceremonial role.

But they could be the deciding factor this time around.

They're being courted heavily right now. Common wisdom is that most
lean to Clinton, what with the Clinton machine having been around for
almost 20 years now. She's trying to lobby them to stay on the
reservation, with Chelsea (!) making personal calls to them this week.

So it could come down to the convention itself. A floor fight.
Obscure rules cited. Delegate credentials challenged. Backroom deals.

It could be ugly.

And if Clinton came out ahead, which would be the likely outcome of
such a battle (and says a lot about Obama's weaknesses), then things
could be a horrible mess.

She could win the nomination without having won the votes of the people.

And that, should it occur, would be a disaster for the Democrats in
November.

The party would be in shambles, divided and angry.

From this point, it looks like the most likely course of events.
Something could happen to change it. Everyone has to realize it's a
disaster of a plan. So maybe a deal is struck before hand, with Obama
as Veep. Overtures are being made even now (which of course serves a
dual purpose of slightly undermining Obama today). That would avoid
the nastiness, and be best for the party.

But it's rarely about that...

Anyway, Denver could be a fun town this summer. Remember Chicago in 68?

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