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Wednesday, May 24, 2006

 

Republican Romney visits Middle East

Governor Mitt Romney, likely candidate for President in 2008, visited the Middle East this week, obstensibly "visiting the Massachusets troops". In reality, of course, he's building foreign policy street cred.

Yet it's not like he's breaking any new ground, taking the safest possible tack on the issue of the war in Iraq- "I've indicated from the beginning that I support the president and Congress and their decision to move in. I think we did inadequate job of planning for the post-major period of conflict. I don't think we had enough forces on the ground."

The downside for Romney? He's been out of state about half the business days of every month since the start of the year.

Perhaps necessary travel for a candidate, but bad press for a Governor. If he's goign to pay that price, he should try to get more out of it than a photo-op.

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Wednesday, May 10, 2006

 

What is Hillary Clinton up to?

Presumptive 08 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is taking some very predictable heat on her decision to forge a fundraising alliance with Rupert Murdoch.

Murdoch, despised by many on the left for his News Corp empire's media voices, is sponsoring a fundraiser for Clinton later in the summer. Murdoch says the fundraiser is small scale, and it does seem to be on the low end of Clinton's money events.

So Clinton can't be doing it for money. She seems to already be paying a price with her base far beyond the value of the event itself. Clinton herself has offered the weakest possible excuse- "He's my constituent and I'm very gratified that he thinks I'm doing a good job.".

So what is she really up to?

On the surface, the alliance appears to be a miscalculation by her campaign. The left-wing of the Democratic party has built a small empire on vilifying selected targets, and Murdoch and his Fox News Channel are certainly among them. Disdain for these entities is part of the identity of the hard-core left, and Clinton making nice with them is going to alienate a significant portion of her base.

It's not likely to gain her much ground with the moderate right, either.

The core problem is that Murdoch is Fox (thus Vast-Right-Wing-Conspiracy) personified to the left, but he is meaningless as a personality to the right. The right cares about Bill O'Reilly and the various anchors of the network, but they don't care at all about Murdoch himself. So Hillary has aligned herself with a symbol of what her base despises, but at no gain with the rest of the electorate.

So, again, what is Clinton up to?

It could be that she's serious about disarming a key player in the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy. As ridiculed as the term has become, the idea behind it is not without validity. The concept is that anti-Clinton stories would percolate in the right-wing underground for some time, then slowly work their way into the mainstream-right press (Of which Fox News would now be a member, as would the Murdoch-owned New York Post), then into the mainstream press itself. So perhaps this is an attempt to take out a key player in that chain. It could work, though there's no guarantees Murdoch will stay friendly. Still, maybe this is just an opening step in the co-option of Rupert.

This could possibly be a smart move, dealing a strong blow to the VRWC chain that could circulate scandals during the upcoming Hillary for President campaign. If Clinton can successfully undermine the scandal machine, she could avoid electibility worries not only in the general election, but in the primaries as well.

But this points up Clinton's fundamental problem- her way to the White House is very, very narrow. She has to prove her electibility while not completely losing the support of her base, and she has to start now. Her campaign must of necessity be sophisticated and subtle in ways that the campaigns of the other candidates don't have to be. She can't make many missteps, and her opponents will see a lot of opportunities to force her into a corner, so the odds are heavily against her.

Moves like aligning with Murdoch are clever stratagems, but they're also quite risky. Whatever her motivations, Clinton will be gambling with many steps like this along the road to '08, and it's virtually certain she's going to lose at least one bet big.

It's going to be a very interesting two years following the Clinton campaign, and Election Junction is looking forward to every week of it.

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Monday, May 08, 2006

 

Mark Warner promotes podcasts

Likely Democratic presidential candidate Mark Warner has been releasing a series of podcasts via his PAC's website, ForwardTogetherPAC.com.

Produced in both audio and video formats, Warner's podcasts have been accelerated in frequency of late, perhaps reflecting a new focus on the medium. Several of the podcasts look to have been shot in a single session, but the site promises more to come, including some answering visitor's questions.

Although the series has the rather unfortunate label of "iPolitics", it does seem to be a quite savvy move on the part of the campaign...errr...PAC. The podcasts have the potential to serve as a great tool for motivating younger, hipper political set, who are after all the ones who do the grassroots grunt work of any major campaign.

It's a logical progression for Trippi-esque House Party community building, taking it a step further and placing the message directly in the hands of the end viewer. Rather than use the "come over to our house and watch a campaign video" model, podcasts embrace the web 2.0 dissemination of power ethos and could turn out to be even more powerful. While there will no doubt be room for house party style events in the 08 campaigns (face time can still be the most exciting motivational tool), podcasts give the neighborhood activists the power to spread the message on their own, on a more personal one-to-one level.

And it's not hard to imagine someone sitting on a subway, watching their campaign podcast, getting excited and energized about a candidate's message. Keeping the video handy for whenever they need that extra reminder about what they're trying to accomplish, fitting it into the corners of the day.

Having said all that, the Warner podcasts aren't there yet. They don't have quite that zing that will be needed to be as effective as they could be. The podcasts are clearly in the experimental stages, and already there has been improvement in production quality over the course of the short series. Warner has always seemed a little stiff in his speaking, though, and the podcast format screams for a more intimate talking-directly-to-me approach. Perhaps as they produce more of them, and in possibly shorter, more frequent sessions, Warner will gain a more comfortable conversational tone. If so, he really could form a strong bond with supporters, one that lets him be everywhere, with everyone. It's like the revolution TV brought to politics, but potentially much more of a personal feel.

In terms of content, Warner does pretty well. It's too early for specifics, so the videos focus primarily on selling the vision. Warner clearly plans to pull the Democratic Party to more of a positive message, and away from the easy path of criticizing the errors of the current administration. The podcasts seem headed in that direction, though they could use a bit more focus on goals, even in a broad sense, as that will be what motivates people to get out and set up organizations and knock on doors in the long run.

Overall, the podcasts are a smart piece of a well-done web strategy by the Warner team. The Forward Together site is one of the best in politics, doing most everything right for where they're at in their campaign (PAC). It would be great to mix the bite-sized podcasts with longer video of Warner speeches, though text of select speeches are available, including the classic "Why I Am A Democrat", one of the best speeches from a candidate I've come across in recent years.

Warner seems to be making good use of the podcast medium, it's probably a good thing he doesn't live in Singapore. Prison Got No Broadband, after all.



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Saturday, May 06, 2006

 

The Sound and The Fury

Voters in Singapore overwhelmingly kept the People's Action Party (PAP) in power in elections on Saturday.

PAP retained 82 of 84 seats in Parliament, despite opposition in over half of the constituencies for the first time in nearly 20 years. The campaign period was a short 9 days, but the debate and antics of both sides were fast and intense.

Although the voters of Singapore decided for the status quo, PAP only secured 66.6% of the vote, down notably from the 75% of the last election. This prompted Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to call for national unity now that the elections are over, and to promise to serve the people of Singapore better.

One hopes that they will at least get their lifts stopping on every floor in return for the strong support given to PAP.

No word was available on the promised circuses.

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Tuesday, May 02, 2006

 

Republicans nominate Ken Blackwell for Ohio governor

Ohio Republicans went to the polls on Tuesday and nominated the first african-american candidate for Ohio governor, Kenneth Blackwell.

Currently Secretary of State and a man with solid conservative credentials (he led the state campaign for a marriage ammendment to the state constitution) and a slate of mainstream Republican leader endorsements, Blackwell has his work cut out for him nonetheless.

Ohio voters are a bit burned out with Republicans due to a number of scandals in the state over the past couple of years. And Blackwell is currently trailing in the polls 52-35 behind his opponent, Democrat Ted Strickland. Strickland's latest television ad indicates that he grew up in a chickenhouse, loves children and hates money, so he could be a difficult challenge for Blackwell.

Ohio will be just as much a battleground state in 06 as it was in 04, so it should be interesting to watch how this race unfolds.

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Prison Got No Broadband

In an act of ironic commentary, an Singapore blogger has declared himself "persistently non-political" and reminds visitors to his site that "Prison got no broadband".

The blogger, known as MrBrown, encourages his audience to take photos of daily life in Singapore, but to be very careful not to include political logos or election items, and to post the photos on flickr with the tag "singaporeelections".

It's the best statement a Singapore blogger can manage, being prohibited by law from providing photographs, posts, or podcasts of a persistently political nature during the period leading up to this weekend's General Elections.

All in the name of preventing the Singapore voting public from becoming too confused or misled by evil political bloggers trying to convince them one candidate or party could possibly offer a better alternative.

Best of luck to mrbrown, and here's hoping he keeps his broadband access intact!

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Monday, May 01, 2006

 

Republican Tancredo stakes out firm position on immigration

Potential 2008 Republican Presidential candidate Tom Tancredo has placed his bet on which side of the immigration issue serves him best. In statements on Monday, Tancredo expressed his gratitude to the May 1 immigrant demonstrations, saying that they served to turn more and more people "...against the protesters and whatever it is they are trying to advance".

Tancredo then went on to taunt the protestors over their less-than-promised turnout,"I think 50,000 people protested in Denver, Colorado. Remember, when the Broncos won the SuperBowl in 1998 there were 600,000 people in the streets."

A clearly carefully-timed Tancredo-penned editorial appeared on the conservative website National Review Online on Monday as well, removing any doubt as to where Tancredo stands on illegal immigration. His editorial outlines all the negative aspects of illegal immigration, apparently to offset any positive coverage resulting from the May 1 marches.

The Colorado congressman has come to the conclusion that his best strategy is to stake out the right political margin on this issue, and perhaps for his district he's right. No doubt the message will play to a certain segment of Iowa and New Hampshire as well, though you'd expect it would come at a cost in areas where Republicans had been making strides with latino voters, such as Florida, Texas, and even California.

On the other hand, it does allow other Republicans to stake out a more middle of the road territory, while still being against illegal immigration. In comparison, they will seem moderate as Tancredo shifts the edge further to the right.

Could Tancredo be the Pat Buchanan of '08? His association with Pat's sister Bay Buchanan may not be entirely coincidental...

The "Team America PAC" name may not be the best-advised, given what another set of Coloradans have done with the Team America concept.

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Singapore: The confusing chaos of democracy continues

Chee Soon Juan, head of the Singapore Democratic Party, challenged the social fabric of the "speck" of a state on Monday by speaking to a crowd of 50 people for 2 minutes following a rally.

Chee is an "undischarged bankrupt", ineligible for participation in electoral activities, and was thus in violation of the Parliamentary Elections Act.

Singaporean law enforcement are said to be investigating the violation.

The incident followed Chee being blocked from going on stage at the rally itself.

The officer who blocked Chee from the stage stated "'I didn't prevent Dr Chee. I simply advised him if he goes on stage...'

Yes. Well then.

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