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Sunday, January 06, 2008

 

Democratic Debate Impressions- Obama, Clinton, Edwards

In contrast, the Democratic debate was filled with the excitement of a shifting political landscape.

Obama didn't have his best night. He actually seemed a bit lackluster compared to his public speaking of late. Perhaps he's a bit worn down. Perhaps he knows he didn't need top performance tonight. Perhaps he had a plan. He didn't hurt himself, and was able to make some minor progress on the "no specifics" charges. Overall, solidifying status as frontrunner.

Clinton, on the other hand, most definitely did some serious damage to herself. Facing pressure of a third place finish in Iowa, and slipping numbers in New Hampshire, she let it get to her. Her friendly, happy, let's-chat facade cracked, for just a moment, but it's a moment that reminded everyone, even her supporters, what they don't like about her. Arrogance and anger poured out of her for about a minute, and it was not at all flattering for her demeanor. The rest of the debate was ok (though honestly, the "35 years of change" line is ill-advised on about a half dozen different levels), but no one will remember that. She really suffered some damage.

And I think a lot of it came from her surprise at Edwards. There was a point fairly early on where Hillary was attacking Obama, and ended it with a clear invitation for Edwards to pile on Obama as well. Obama didn't miss the attempt, and was clearly prepared for it as he jumped in and broke up the presumptive tag-team with a mini-oration of his own. Smart tactics, break the momentum, at least make them work for it if they're attacking you.

But Edwards had a surprise for them both. Ever the trial lawyer tactician, he seemed to blindside both Clinton and Obama by siding with Obama. At that crucial moment, the dynamic changed in a way no one on the stage was expecting. Obama wisely took a back seat and watched Edwards make his play. Clinton never recovered, she was on the defensive from that point on, and Edwards was eventually able to push her into the mistake she made with her tone. The look on his face when she took the bait was priceless. He knew exactly what he was doing, and executed it quite well.

Combined with the dynamism of his "this time it's personal" approach to the Change question, Edwards was the winner tonight. Second place in New Hampshire is in his reach. I'm not sure what his long term plan is, if he's aiming for Veep again, or if he's got a plan for Obama once he knocks off Hillary, but he took some strong steps to making it a two man race tonight.

Overall, this was a defining moment in the Democratic race. Hillary took a major slide down, and Edwards seems to be sealing in the number two space.

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