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Monday, January 01, 2007

 

The Field: Declared Candidates for President in 2008

We're just over a year away from the first primaries, so let's see who has officially thrown their hats in the ring.

No "explorers" here, or people "looking at options", Election Junction is looking only at the candidates who've put it all on the line already. There will be plenty of time for these men to "spend with their families" later.

The Republican side is thin, with no major candidates declared. Only some very minor players who seem likely to be pursuing other goals with their candidacy rather than being serious contenders.

First up we have John Cox out of Chicago. He's lost several elections and primaries over the past few years, and seems to have occupied his time with businesses and radio talk shows. We'll keep an eye on his candidacy, and he does seem to be hitting the campaign trail in the early states, but don't expect a breakout here.

Next we have Michael Charles Smith from Oregon. He seems realistic about his chances, and his goal is to secure one delegate from his home state so that he'll have a chance to deliver his message at the Republican Convention, to be held in St. Paul. An admirable realism, and something he might actually achieve.

The Democrats have a few more candidates who have filed FEC papers, and one who has declared his candidacy but has not filed.

First is Mike Gravel, a former senator from Alaska. Gravel seems to be running an issue advocacy campaign focused on the FairTax plan. He has spent time in New Hampshire, and is getting a reasonable amount of local attention there. As the past has shown, New Hampshire is a small state that rewards retail politics, so his face time there could pay off with a few votes.

Next is Tom Vilsack, from Iowa. As a native of the first state to run select delegates, it would be assumed he'd have an inside edge on getting a good early start. However, former Governor Vilsack has been polling poorly in Iowa, and may not be the factor he was widely assumed to be. If he starts to pick up steam in his home state, though, it would give other candidates an excuse to not expend valuable early resources in Iowa.

Repeating his '04 run is Dennis Kucinich of Ohio. He was a distant also-ran in '04, but he did have the respect of many on the left for standing by his positions with determination and integrity. As such, he might again be a factor in shaping the edges of the Democratic message in 2008. If any of the major candidates pull the field to the left, it will be Kucinich as tightly squeezed front-runners may try to pull a few votes from his pool.

Also repeating his '04 run is John Edwards, out of North Carolina. Edwards would have to be seen as the favorite of the declared candidates, and indeed is polling well among all likely candidates as well. He should do well in the South Carolina primary, which is an big early block of votes in the schedule. His ticket didn't win the state in the national election in '04, but he did quite well there among Democrats in the primary that same year. One possible glitch for him would be the candidacy of Obama, as South Carolina democrats have a heavy African-American contingent, widely expected to support Obama if he runs. Edwards declared his candidacy in New Orleans in an event designed to show he was providing a hands-on response to the challenges of the post-Katrina city. Indeed, this sort of "solve problems now" approach seems to be the center of his campaign. Time will tell, but this could be a successful strategy.

Rounding out the field is Joe Biden, of Connecticut. Biden has not filed FEC papers, but has declared he is running. Early reports indicate he is doing well in the small events he's organizing in the first few primary states. He's a veteran of a previous presidential campaign, back in 1988, which ended when it was confirmed that he'd plagiarized a speech from a British politician. While that made him a target of wonk humor ever since, the event is likely long since forgotten by the public at large, who probably don't care very much in the first place. Undoubtedly the topic will come up in his campaign, but it should quite easily be brushed aside.

So there we have it, the declared candidates from the two major parties. More will declare in the next few weeks, though at least one is planning to wait til the fall to decide. The next 3-4 months will determine who can raise enough cash to run a serious campaign, however, so expect the field to expand rapidly from here.

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