Election Junction

Seen on a nearly abandoned street near Los Angeles's Skid Row.

He stumbles, and this is way off his message.

This is the test.

Can he pull this off, or does his coming down to earth to address these issues kill him?



In any case, the Clinton oppo team has had a good week. Maybe the decisive week.

Go ahead, try to tell me this doesn't remind you of the campaign this year.

So one scenario under which the Dems might lose in November-

A brokered convention.

It's shaping up that way now. Today will likely be a split decision
on the Dem side, with no clear winner. It's also likely that all the
remaining primaries will finish up with Obama with a slight lead in
delegates, but not enough for the nomination.

So then it's on the Superdelegates, or delegates who are unbound and
free to vote for whoever they wish. Typically these are party
officials, elected officials, etc. It's usually a ceremonial role.

But they could be the deciding factor this time around.

They're being courted heavily right now. Common wisdom is that most
lean to Clinton, what with the Clinton machine having been around for
almost 20 years now. She's trying to lobby them to stay on the
reservation, with Chelsea (!) making personal calls to them this week.

So it could come down to the convention itself. A floor fight.
Obscure rules cited. Delegate credentials challenged. Backroom deals.

It could be ugly.

And if Clinton came out ahead, which would be the likely outcome of
such a battle (and says a lot about Obama's weaknesses), then things
could be a horrible mess.

She could win the nomination without having won the votes of the people.

And that, should it occur, would be a disaster for the Democrats in
November.

The party would be in shambles, divided and angry.

From this point, it looks like the most likely course of events.
Something could happen to change it. Everyone has to realize it's a
disaster of a plan. So maybe a deal is struck before hand, with Obama
as Veep. Overtures are being made even now (which of course serves a
dual purpose of slightly undermining Obama today). That would avoid
the nastiness, and be best for the party.

But it's rarely about that...

Anyway, Denver could be a fun town this summer. Remember Chicago in 68?

In a stunningly impressive speech for a late-early stage primary victory, Barack Obama played his strongest card- his oratorical talent and vision. Watching this, you see how he could win, and even think for a time he might mean what he says.

How odd for a politician.

If anyone can lead a new movement in national politics, it might be this man.

Whatever the case, the speech is a joy to watch.

Dick Morris wrote a very interesting piece on a possible Clinton strategy in South Carolina- Send Bill out to campaign with the Black community, knowing full well that he and Hillary will lose the state due largely to Black voters backing Obama.

At that point, what they will have done is draw attention to race in a way that Obama himself has studiously avoided, and to great advantage. The theory goes that White voters, seeing Black voters vote as a bloc, will then break towards Hillary on Super-Duper Tuesday.

It's about the most cynical us-v-them maneuver possible, and is really depressing to watch.

Is it really the plan? Well, all the evidence sure does seem to play that way. And, of course, it fits the Machination Machine profile. And Morris used to mastermind just this sort of thing, for just this pair of candidates.

On the flip side, Morris says a lot of things, for a lot of reasons.

Still...

So maybe Obama really means it about the whole "uniter not a divider" thing. Or he at least knows how to play the game and make his opponent look bad at the same time.

From National Review Online:

"Team Hillary will be holding a conference call with Rep. Barney Frank (MA), Rep. Corrine Brown (FL), and Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV) to "discuss recent comments from Sen. Obama claiming that the Republican party was the party of ideas.""

So Obama is saying nice things, in a very minor way, about the opposing party and one of their favorite icons, Ronald Reagan, and Hillary is attacking him for it.

Understandable reaction from Clinton in traditional world of politics, but brilliant chess-like maneuvering on the part of Obama.

He's the Uniter, she's the Divider, and she's falling for it.

Doesn't cost him a thing, either.