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Saturday, December 29, 2007

 

Romney and Edwards in Iowa, explaining the call

Last week I posted that Romney and Edwards would win Iowa, but without an explanation.

On the Dem side, it was a result of some basic analysis. Edwards is polling well as the first choice of Iowans, and far and away the favorite second choice. The second choice is particularly important in the Caucuses, since after the first round, people who supported candidates with less than 15% in the first round go to their second choice. The Dem field is fragmented enough that there will be a substantial number of people going to their second choice, and the lion's share of those will go to Edwards. It should be enough for him to pull out a win.

I don't think a win in Iowa helps Edwards much, but it's a complete disaster for the Clinton campaign. Edwards isn't going to be the nominee. He won't even win his home state. But he can shatter the aura for Hillary with a win. He's also the most likely to end up as a Veep again, and Iowa helps him make that case when the time comes.

On the Pubbie side, the call is more instinct than anything else. Huckabee is enjoying a last minute surge, but it just doesn't feel real. You often see this sort of thing in a campaign, support of a candidate suddenly increasing as the time to vote approaches, but it's often illusory. I don't really understand why it happens ( I think the press's need for drama is part of it), but I've seen it enough to know what it feels like. This feels like it. I predict his support will collapse in the coming week, to the point that he simply won't be in first place when it's all said and done. At that point, his campaign is over, he doesn't have a second act.

That leaves Romney in the catbird seat, and I see him taking the Iowa win and riding it all the way to the convention. His will be a story of increasing momentum. The other potentials, McCain and Giuliani, were never more than flirtations for the voters. They knew what they were getting with those two and never really got excited about either of them. Both are too tainted in various ways to have serious chance at winning. Thompson came in too late, and with less understanding of Reagan's power than he imagined. Paul. Well, Paul had the blimp at least.

We're getting close to the fun time!

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