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Saturday, April 29, 2006

 

Berlusconi finally gives up the ghost

A short nineteen days after the election, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi conceded defeat.

Berlusconi had shouted about corruption and vote fraud, but in the end he decided to move on from the Prime Minister's office.

His successor, Romano Prodi, has been meeting tough opposition getting his candidates for government offices into place. This stiff resistance, combined with an outgoing official's statement that "Our objective is to bring it (the government) down as soon as possible" doesn't bode well for the stability of Italy's power structure over the coming year.

Italy has had a history of political instability since WWII, but that had appeared to level off in the past few years. Gven the narrow margin of the '06 election, we may see a period of tightly contested races leading to a series of short-lived administrations.

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Oppposition lacks "intellectual content", Singapore's Lee says

Minister Mentor and former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew says the opposition to his People's Action Party aren't qualified to hold office. According to Lee, who has totally dominated Singaporean politics for 50 years, the opposition has no business knowledge, no economics know-how.

The opposition parties, working under tight campaign restrictions, have managed to contest over half the seats in Parliament for the first time in nearly 20 years, but Lee is not satisified, saying "If you want to play your role, you come out with 84 candidates equal to the PAP’s and say we can form an alternative government that will be better than the PAP."

In a statement a bit more naked than most politicians dare, Lee added, "
If you have a flood, just think carefully who is more likely to get the drainage put right and the flood alleviated as quickly as possible. A PAP candidate with links to the minister, and the Prime Minister? Or a non-PAP candidate who has become an MP like in Potong Pasir or Hougang, and has to manage on his own."

Ah democracy. So chaotic and confusing. What's a voter to do?

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Thursday, April 27, 2006

 

A tale of two rehabilitations

Two former US political leaders are currently hard at work rehabilitating their images. Both have been seen as controversial partisans, seemingly dug in to fight to the death for their political party, though each is on a different side of the line.

Now Newt Gingrich and Al Gore are returning to their roots as smart, passionate policy wonks, and it's working to soften both of their images, pulling them away from their public images as semi-crazed partisans.

Gore, who had once adapted Clinton-style campaigning and leadership strategies, is now touring the country speaking on the topics for which he was best known prior to his stretch as VP- global warming and environmentalism. Gore's speaking tour coincides with the release of an advocacy documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, which stars Gore riffing on climate change and its possible effects on human lives. The slickly-marketed film gives Gore a platform to expound on his pet topics, and do so in a way that's both passionate and comfortable at the same time. "Here's a man who knows his stuff, he cares about it, and he's trying to tell me something he genuinely feels is important", that's the subliminal message of the film and tour.

This echoes Gore's original campaign issue, set out in his 1992 book Earth In The Balance, written when he was best known as Senator Gore, and not Vice-President or Nearly-President Gore. It's from a time before he was portrayed as bitter, or partisan, or even really boring. True, at the time, Global Warming was a lesser issue, only a certain base segment cared at all, and Gore's discourse on the subject didn't exactly set the mainstream on fire. But times are different, and both Gore and global warming have been through a number of stages of public perception. A film and speaking tour on his core issue that allows him to shed the "wooden", "stiff", and "snippy" labels should do wonders for his public face.

Gingrich, last seen in widespread public view as he resigned his office in defeat in 1999, is also on a speaking tour of sorts. Supported by a frequently and thoroughly updated website, Gingrich has been traveling and speaking on a variety of topics he believes are key the future of his chosen party. Newt is at his best spinning off ideas, and they come fast and furious on his tour, as he covers Iraq, health plans, immigration, technological and societal change- pure policy wonkism. Well grounded in history (Gingrich holds a PhD in the subject, and has taught at several universities), he is able to place nearly any policy topic in to the big picture, and communicate that to his audience.

The reception for his recent blitz has been generally positive, both from audiences and from pundits, though his past persona does seem to come up in every article written about him. His rehabilitation is not complete as Gore's, and it may never be, but he is on the path to a greater acceptance.

Both men have been mentioned as possible candidates in '08, though both are coy, and neither is expected to have a serious chance at winning a nomination. Newt seems more likely to run than Gore, and he seems to be planning to run mostly in order to shape the debate, but Gore could be setting his own stage, and the timing of the movie and speaking tour seem ideal for preparing for '08. The odds for both men are low now, but things do change.

Change is coming faster, bigger, and harder than ever, and we could do worse than having two passionate, intelligent (and interesting) men debating real policy issues in our next Presidential Election. Hopefully the American people and their representatives in the press will see it the same way, and allow these two to contribute to the debate in '08.

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Over half seats contested in Singapore Elections

For the first time in nearly 20 years, more than half the seats in Singapore Parliament are being contested.

In the May 6 elections, 47 of 84 seats are being challenged, meaning that the dominant People's Action Party does not an automatic return to power. Currently, only 2 of the 84 seats are held by anyone other than PAP. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said he would have been happier if more seats were contested. He stated he was worried when so few had filed earlier in the week, but was relieved when they came through at the last hour.

PAP's official position is that contested seats make the winning candidates stronger, which would seem to be true. Forcing positions to be outlined and choices to be made should lead to stronger officials.

And perhaps they would be stronger yet if they had all the modern tools of campaigning available to them, such as blogging and podcasting.

In any case, a more lively election should lead to a stronger and better Singapore.

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Wednesday, April 26, 2006

 

Mexican Presidential contender skips debate, loses lead

Andreas Manuel Lopez Obrador, once seen as the leading candidate in this July's presidential elections in Mexico, skipped a televised debate this week, and his opponents made the most of it. Lopez Obrador of the Demoractic Revolution Party had decided to skip the debate long ago, when his lead was safe.

His bold disdain may have cost him, though, as voters seemed unimpressed with his absence. The other candidates didn't talk about him, and his empty podium was out of focus. Though Lopez Obrador's campaign manager had said the debate was a race for second place, it's the former race leader who finds himself in second now, behind National Action Party candidate Felipe Calderon. Calderon, of the same party as current President Vicente Fox, used his strong debate performance to solidify his support just 10 weeks before the election.

AMLO (as Lopez Obrador is sometimes referred to) might well show for the next debate. But will his climb down from his lofty perch come too late?

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Singapore Democratic Party removes podcast from site

The Singapore Democratic Party, or SDP, today removed a rogue podcast from its site, backing off from its earlier rebellious stance. The podcast, by SDP chief Chee Soon Juan, had claimed the Singapore authorities were attempting to crush the SDP.

SDP representatives consider the ban "unconstitutional", but the party moved to comply with the law anyway.

The watchdog group "Reporters Without Borders" issued a statement comdemning the government ruling on podcasts, saying that Singapore was determined to crush political debate on the internet.

Last winter the group ranked Singapore 147th among the nations of the world in terms of press freedom, placing the country between Bhutan and Iraq.

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Tuesday, April 25, 2006

 

Singapore opposition nearly miss key deadline

Opposition candidates from several parties nearly missed the deadline to turn in forms declaring political donations, which would have made them ineligible to run in the upcoming general election.


The Prime Minister's Office had just announced the rule last week, in advance of the May 6 election, and numerous candidates seemed to be unaware of it. All made it in, however, some just under the wire.

In other Singapore election news, the Singapore Democratic Party's chairman Chee Soon Juan issued a podcast, in plain defiance of the government's ban on podcasts during the election period. Chee said the ban was targeted at his party's campaign strategy, and challenged his opponents to a debate.

Hopefully the voters of Singapore won't find this all too chaotic and confusing, though it seems some of the candidates might.

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Sunday, April 23, 2006

 

Singapore Elections to be blog and podcast-free

Singapore's government has announced that podcasts and blogs of a political nature will not be allowed during election periods, and that political blogs should be registered with the Media Development Authority (MDA).


According to Senior Minister of State for Information, Communications and the Arts, Dr. Balaji Sadasivan, "In a free-for-all Internet environment, where there are no rules, political debates could easily degenerate into an unhealthy, unreliable and dangerous discourse flush with rumours and distortions to mislead and confuse the public."

I think we all know what that can be like.

Maybe this is how the People's Action Party plans to win 83 of 84 seats.

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Saturday, April 22, 2006

 

Berlusconi continues serenade, doesn't concede to Prodi

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has still not conceded last week's Italian Elections to Romano Prodi.

He said when the new parliamentary session opens on Friday he still intends to report to work, and stay there until Italian President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi tells him to resign.

Berlusconi seems to still be standing by his claims of election fraud by Prodi supporters, and claims that he won a "political victory" by securing the most votes in the election, though his coalition did not win enough seats to retain power.

This all sounds vaguely familiar in a pennisular election, but I'm having trouble finding Tallahassee on my map of Italy. Is that near Trieste?

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Friday, April 21, 2006

 

Kerry Defends Iowa and New Hampshire Primary Primacy

Democrat John Kerry, candidate for President in 2004 and possibly again in 2008, defended the status quo of the US primary system on Friday.

He said he believed the process doesn't need to be fixed, and that DNC chairman Howard Dean is mistaken in his desire to shift the order of primaries to take focus away from New Hampshire and Iowa. Dean, and other prominent Democrats, would like to add other states' primaries betweeen Iowa and New Hampshire, purportedly in the interest of diverisfying the early leaders.

Of course, the move implies that the Dems are not happy with their last nominee, who was of course John Kerry. So in some ways, he's simply standing up for the process that stamped him with approval.

Still, Kerry says “It’s my position. And my position is my position.”

A bit more of that firmness in the 04 election and he might not be complaining about 60,000 votes in Ohio today.



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Monday, April 17, 2006

 

Bush/Cheney Help Senate Fundraisers

Republicans have some serious concerns about losing senate seats in this year's midterm elections, so the big guys are out to help the most endangered of the bunch.

President Bush and Vice-President Cheney have been working Ohio fundraisers for Sen. Mike DeWine Dewine has raised $2.3 million since the beginning of the year, $1.1 million from a single event with Bush, and is likely to need every bit of help he can get in this close race.

Cheney went to New Jersey to help Tom Kean raise money for his senate run, but Kean managed to be "delayed in traffic" and thus get the money without any pesky photos of him with unpopular vice-president.

In contrast, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania went for both the money and the photo-op, at least at a private event. Maybe not a bad idea, considering some of the public differences the two have had, some of which could hurt Santorum with the Republican base.

Despite Bush's low popularity with the public at large, he's still popular with much of the base, and he's still a great fundraiser.

Now if only people wanted to be seen in public with him.


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Friday, April 14, 2006

 

Clinton raises millions for race

But which race? While obstensibly raising funds for her re-election this year, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton has gathered millions of dollars, giving her more than 40 times what her Republican challengers have on hand.

Of course, incumbents almost always have the fund raising advantage, but speculation is running rampant that what Clinton is really doing is building the bank account and the infrastructure for a Presidential run in 2008. She's gone national, and is getting hundreds of thousands of supporters invested in her as a candidate financially, and more importantly, emotionally.

None of this is unusual, except that she continues to insist she's not planning anything past this year's Senate race. But come to think of it, that sort of indirection isn't unusual either. Fields on both sides of the '08 race have been taking shape for some time, though most are still playing it coy.

The happiest people at this point are likely to be the consultants spending all that money...

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Berlusconi's Hopes Come To An End

Well, his realistic hopes. Silvio still says "They have not won yet and I think that from a moral point of view we are the winners", but the tally disagrees, and the number of disputed ballots is smaller than the margin of defeat .

So it looks like he'll just have to content himself with being rich and powerful outside of government.

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Singapore Party Chairman Declares Election Goal: 83 of 84 Seats

Chairman Lim Boon Heng of Singapore's People's Action Party says winning 83 of 84 seats in the next election would be a "very good result" for his party.

I suppose he's right, if he lacks the gumption to go for that last seat.

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Thursday, April 13, 2006

 

Vilsack PAC Sponsors "10 Word Message" for Dems

Tom Vilsack, Democratic Gov. of Iowa and possible 2008 Presidential candidate, sponsored a contest through his Heartland PAC to define the Democratic Message in 10 words.

What they lack in slickness, they make up for in corporate mission statement-ness. Reading these you realize how hard it is to make a good slogan. Combining rhythm and message in 10 words is a professional-level challenge.

ElectionJunction can never resist a contest, however beyond its talents the object may be-

"Ensuring Liberty, Protecting Freedom, And Bringing Opportunity, To All Americans"

Of course, Republicans would claim the same slogan applied to them. You can't win.

Look, more Ethanol funding! Of course, Vilsack has an excuse for pandering to Iowa farmers.

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Republican 08 campaigner McCain hits Iowa

Republican Senator John McCain does a whirlwind tour of Iowa on Thursday, in an attempt to round up some support for a 2008 presidental run.

McCain, considered by many conservatives to be a prime example of a RINO (Republican In Name Only), is attempting to shore up relations with the Pubbie base. He recently visited Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, and today in Iowa he'll be meeting with Christian activists and other party faithful.

By most accounts, McCain has a long way to go to win conservative support, and by hitting places like Liberty, he's risking his moderate appeal as well.

The next 18 months will be interesting to watch as the man from Arizona attempts to straddle both sides of the line.

And we'll probably be hearing a lot more about ethanol fuel as the caucuses get closer and closer. Nothing like a campaign to help fund the search for more ways to produce hot air.

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Wednesday, April 12, 2006

 

California town forced to hold open election, Clerk won't count votes

in the oddest election news of the day, the Clerk for the city of Vernon California announced he won't count the votes cast this week in an election which could change the face of the town considerably.

The 5 square mile city is the ultimate in "company towns", with the housing owned by the city and a totally industrial commercial base. In over 100 years, the town has had 4 mayors.

The city website doesn't mention any of this, though it does have a nice little history section.

Sounds like a place a lot of politicians would love to settle.

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CA 50 headed to run-off election

Looks like Democrat Francine Busby fell a bit short of the majority required to avoide a run-off in CA 50. With 96.6% of the precincts reporting, she leads the special election field at 43.97%. Former Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray came in second place, leading a heavily divided GOP field with 15.16%.

So it's a Busby-Bilbray runoff in June, the same date as the Governor's race primary. Democrat turnout will be heavy for the primary, and Ahnold will be running essentially unopposed for the Pubs, so Busby does have a decent shot at the seat even in a mostly conservative district.

Points to the Dems for their excellent strategery.

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Berlusconi revisited

Looks like I spoke too soon, Silvio "The Martyr" Berlusconi may have lost the
election after all. By paper thin margins, he's lost both houses of the Italian parliament.

Or so it seems. Berlusconi is refusing to concede, and is calling for a recount. He cites numerous "irregularities" and claims he might well have won.

Phrases like "the intent of the voter" can't be far behind.

No word on whether Silvio "got snippy" with Prodi.

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Tuesday, April 11, 2006

 

CA 50 Special Election today

CA 50 holds a special election today to replace the convicted Randy "Duke" Cunningham. In traditionally Republican San Diego County, this election is being seen as something of an indicator of the Dems' chances to retake the House in the fall. Real Clear Politics has some thoughts on why any prediction based on today's outcome might not hold true.


Given the large field of candidates, it's possible no one will win a majority today, forcing a runoff . Republican votes look to be very divided, but the Dems seem to have united behind Francine Busby, making a Democrat victory a real possibility. GOP apathy and a former (R) office holder in prison drag down their side. If the Dems don't win today, their odds drop substantially in a runoff election, when Republicans will be far more focused.

You can bet the Dems will be working hard to get out the vote, let's just hope no GOP operatives get any big ideas.

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Monday, April 10, 2006

 

Republican Mitt Romney returns to the ancestral homeland, Michigan

Republican '08 presidential possibility Romney went to Michigan to campaign for the GOP candidate for governor.

He was moving under cover of his position as chairman of the Republican's Governor's Association, but something tells me the state's 17 electoral votes didn't hinder the decision to make the trip.

"Michigan is one of our target states because the Democratic governor here has not been able to lay out a program to turn this state around, and that's recognized by people" according to Romney. And of course a turnout energized by a vote for a Republican governor wouldn't hurt a GOP presidential candidate in a swing state, particularly if that Prez-to-be was a semi-native son.

As long as he avoids words like "brainwashed" and "big love", he might just have a shot at it.

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Exit polls fail again, Berlusconi hangs on

Italy's Silvio Berlusconi seems to have eeked out a narrow victory in general elections, despite early reports of exit polls showing a loss for the incumbent Prime Minister.

The man who has self-identified as the "Jesus Christ" of Italian politics seems to have pulled off a miracle, though it's just as likely the earlier predictions were a victim of errant exit polls. You'd think after the last couple of US presidential elections the media would know better than to lean too heavily on a system a certain number of people enjoy subverting through misdirection, or is subject to like-seeks-like pollsters asking people who look like them rather than a true sampling. Maybe after a few more "Dewey Beats Truman" headlines, eh?

And at least we're not seeing some Sicilian official peering through a magnifying glass as hanging chads. At least not yet.

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Sunday, April 09, 2006

 

Democrat Mark Warner visits Wisconsin

Democratic 08 hopeful appeared at a state Democractic gathering in Wisconsin, setting the stage for his presidential run.

He stayed pretty close to the middle of the road, sounding very reasonable with his answers on Bush censure and Iraq troop pullout.

That's great for the general election, but will it fly in the primaries? Perhaps, if the debate is set on "electibility". After Kerry, maybe that's the right angle to take, though it doesn't sound much like Dean's party.

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